> In a casino, if a roulette wheel hit black 10 times in a row, somebody letting it ride on black the whole way would have made a fortune, but that doesnt mean it would have been a good bet, it means the people making those bets got lucky.
Equating a currency to a game of chance based on independent events—now that's irrational thinking.
My conclusions might not be valid, this isn't something I'm an expert at, but I really don't think that's a good example.
the problem is that you did not base any of your arguments on actual facts. you just said "if you would have invested 5 months ago, your investment would have grown by a factor of 10." when that is the logic presented, the analogy holds. if you were to give specific reasons why you believe bitcoins grew at that rate AND why the will continue to grow, then it would be a different argument [not that it would necessarily be correct]. however, my point is that when you do not have any sound logic underlying your "investment" it is truly the same as gambling.
Equating a currency to a game of chance based on independent events—now that's irrational thinking.
My conclusions might not be valid, this isn't something I'm an expert at, but I really don't think that's a good example.