You seem to be assuming that the US will automatically do the things that are in its strategic interest, as if it were not only a conscious being but a skilled strategist, even as you point out how the internal political dynamics of European countries do not result in such an outcome. I don't think the future is so predictable, and particularly not with that model.
I agree that what I predict is speculative, as predictions usually are, but I think this is the most likely outcome.
It’s interesting the point you make about political dynamics - elections mainly, and indeed that is a core part of my thesis: American democracy does not cause meaningful changes to the long term strategic direction of the country. Some things are decided by elections, but these things are not.
All highly speculative, yet we will see how it plays out in time.
They weren't; that's Lofgren’s thesis in a
https://billmoyers.com/2014/02/21/anatomy-of-the-deep-state/. But you may be aware that upending that order was a major part of the bullshitter's electoral platform, because the same institutions that maintained that long-term strategic direction were opposed to his candidacy. We will see if they are able to regain control from him, but the prospects don't look good so far.
