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interest rates follow inflation, it's too early to tell if inflation will go back being 4-7% like it was in the 1980s.

The Fed for sure wants it at 2%, not 2.5% , not 1.7%...



What do you mean "too early"? Core inflation has been above 6% since January. The headline number is even higher.

The Fed will be raising rates. The question is how far they have to go before inflation subsides, but it is monumentally obvious that long-term interest rates have to lift off. The days of zero-interest overnight rates are over.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=rocU


The Fed needs to raise rates to about 13% to get inflation under control, assuming current inflation of 8%, a 2% inflation target, and that we're already at full output.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_rule

Problem is that it's very likely that the Fed can't raise rates to 13% without very serious negative consequences like the government defaulting and the people revolting. My prediction is that they get to 3-4%, the economy breaks, and then they flinch and drop to 0 again. Meanwhile, inflation will continue to accelerate, as real interest rates remain negative.

When the currency has depreciated by a factor of 5 or so, total debt levels will become manageable again, and then we might see the Fed persistently raise rates to 20-25% and choke off the inflation. At 20% inflation, it'll take about 9 years to get there, at 8% more than 20 years. If inflation gets to 20% it's very likely to get past 20%, though.


And if yields rise enough, a lot of money will leave the stock market. TINA will be over.




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